The rest of the economy is (apparently) suffering but not the flicks. UK cinemas are on track of have £1bn of takings in 2009, with some big movies keeping the money churning in over the festive period.
What’s interesting is the cause of this rise:
Batey puts this year’s success down to a strong awards season for the UK, led by Slumdog Millionaire, and a regular spread of hits throughout the year. But the popularity of 3D films has been the most remarkable trend.
Digital 3D films, where moviegoers don slick plastic glasses rather than the flimsy old cardboard ones, have taken 10% of box office receipts this year despite being only 3% of the hundreds of films released.
Personally, I’m not so sure. I’m not a big fan of 3D films (having only seen one this year). Looking at the top box office films in the UK this year only three of the top ten were released in 3D (and we don’t know the split between 2D and 3D in revenue). They were all aimed at kids (Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, Up, Monsters Vs Aliens) and were big budget, well marketed films that probably would have done as well in 2D alone.
The biggest earner (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince) took in nearly $30m more. So 2D still rules supreme.
Looking at 2008, it’s hard to see why everyone says this year is doing so well. The top five movies in 2008 grossed a total of $433m, while in 2008 they’ve managed a measly $285m (so far). Harry Potter would have only come in third last year.
I think 3D is and will remain, a niche product that’s fine for fun kids movies but will never break into the big-time. Eventually we’ll get bored and it’ll go away (and anyone who has their house bet on 3D TV better think again).
The big money this year has been on sequels and reboots, and next year may not be so big, but I’m betting some of these will do well and boost the BO performance:
- Percy Jackson & the Olympians: the Lightning Thief – I’m still to be convinced, but this could be the next Harry Potter franchise.
- The Wolfman – too much talent in it to fail.
- Takers – Ocean’s Eleven for youngsters.
- Alice in Wonderland – Tim Burton in charge, Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter, Anne Hathaway, money in the bank.
- Green Zone – Could be the next Bourne movie, but I’m not convinced.
- Clash of the Titans – It’s got talent and will have plenty of FX.
- How to Train Your Dragon – Likely to do well with the kids (as in, actual kids).
- Wall Street 2 – Likely to be crap but also likely to bring in solid numbers.
- Iron Man 2 – Guaranteed hit.
- Letters to Juliet – I’m thinking this’ll do well, has one of the actresses from Mamma Mia, is set in Italy, banker.
- Robin Hood – Classic story, Russell Crowe, Cate Blanchett and some other notables, sure-fire hit.
- Shrek Forever After – I wanted to call time after two, but here comes number four, likely to do well.
- Prince of Persia – The trailer looks crap, but the cast is OK so likely to post solid numbers anyway.
- Sex and the City 2 – Licence to print money, granted.
- The A-Team – Will do well on name recognition alone!
- The Karate Kid – It’s got Will Smith’s son and some guy called Jackie Chan, crap but will do well is my bet.
- Toy Story 3 – Everyone can roll out the old merchandise and rake it in again.
- The Twilight Saga: Eclipse – They could release a 90-minute movie featuring stills of the main cast with voice-overs of the actors reading love poems and it would make more money than 99% of the other films released. Ever.
- The Last Airbender – Not much to go on yet, but likely to do well.
- Predators – They’ve gone for an odd cast and Robert Rodriguez is involved, so maybe this won’t turn out like Aliens vs Predators.
- The Sorcerer’s Apprentice – A little early to tell, but looks likely to be a hit.
- Little Fockers – They don’t appeal to me, but they do well.
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 – Will the first part of the last HP novel make money? Will it ever. Another absolute banker.
- The Chronicles of Narnia: the Voyage of the Dawn Treader – They’re still making them so they must do OK.
- Tron Legacy – Way too early to tell, but likely to get a mint from those who want to reminisce about the original.
- The Green Hornet – Another superhero movie? Probably solid but unremarkable.
So, 2010 is likely to be a fairly good year too.
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