Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail blog (and the soon-to-be-released book of the same name) has posted an entry (and subsequent follow-up) on the death of the blockbuster movie. I originally got the link for this from Binary Bonsai, but Kottke has posted it too. Both Michael and Jason seem to think Chris is right. It’s true that the overall box office revenue last year was down, but as anyone who has read Edward Jay Epstein would know, Hollywood doesn’t earn most of its money from the box office (a lot of what I’m going to say now is derived from Epstein’s words).
The box office is, in fact, a loss leader, mainly used as a PR tool and for prestige (movies that make it to a cinema release have much more credibility later when they reach DVD, think of it as a very expensive trailer). DVDs and TV is where the money is, especially as they carry on generating revenue long after the peak of opening weekend (that famous long tail). Hollywood doesn’t limit itself to just those few market places, what they’re interested in is creating intellectual property (IP). The studios have become experts at ringing every last dime out of a film and its characters. Just look around you. There’s soundtracks, t-shirts, posters, action figures, toys, board games, computer games, product tie-ins, books, TV series, costumes, lunchboxes and theme park rides, and all that before you talk about spin-offs and sequels. It’s not about making movies with blockbusters, it’s about making IP you can exploit.
In order to do that it has to be big, appealing to a mass audience and have plenty of angles to sell. Many smaller, more intimate films may indeed make a higher return, some may even make more at the box office (why the hell do you think all the studios have budget divisions like Sony Classics, Paramount Classics, Warner Independent, Fox Searchlight and Miramax?), but not many people will be lining up to buy the computer game for My Big Fat Greek Wedding unlike King Kong or Harry Potter. It’s also much tougher to sell those sort of films to foreign markets. William Goldman has alleged that Hollywood’s target audience is their biggest market: Asian teenagers. Movies that are light on dialogue and high on action, especially martial arts action, tend to do better there and movies that rely on effects over story tend to travel much better in general. Unfortunately, it costs a lot of money to produce those effects, especially as you have to keep raising the bar in order to keep people interested. Those higher costs mean it’s tougher to get your investment back, which means you pump more into making audiences aware, so a big ad campaign, and we’re back to the blockbuster.
So, is the blockbuster dead? No, it’s alive and well and will continue for a long time to come. Hollywood can ring money out of any big name movie, not so with quirky little flicks. Don’t look for it in the obituaries because you will not find it there.
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