Edward Jay Epstein has given his views on what we should see in the movie biz for 2006.
Boiled down they equate to:
The piece is actually something of a misnomer as his predictions aren’t really for 2006, they’re for the longer term future of Hollywood. I don’t think we’ll see studios selling content direct online in 2006 for example. I agree that the number of people buying and using PVRs will increase, but not enough to change people’s viewing habits in the next 12 months. Blue-Ray may well be introduced in 2006, but it won’t become a mainstream format for a few years due to availability and pricing for both studios and consumers, 2008 will see it making some significant impact I’d guess, maybe 2007.
Most of his ideas are solid, unfortunately I think the timeline is wrong, certainly for the UK market. PVR usage, for example, will increase, but probably not above 20%, it’ll probably need to be 60% before the market is significant enough to make business viable. I would hazard a guess that as PVR usage increases there will be TV channels selling content for download to your PVR to watch, once someone figures out the technological problems of DRM that are causing the studios heartache.
Likewise, Blu-Ray (or HD-DVD) may prove a changing force, but I doubt it, and I doubt anyone but the film nerds will be out to change their video collection the moment it’s released, DVD quality is good enough for most people (especially as most TVs won’t be capable of showing the HD picture). The extras might appeal to a small market, on specific films, but I doubt it’ll be something to hang a business arm on.
Now, the DVD window, that’s ripe for attack, with the main revenue stream in Hollywood being the small screen it seems daft to spend so long in limbo waiting to make it to profit (the box office now only accounts for 15% of studios’ earnings). The problem is the cinemas, they’re naturally keen to defend their profits and Hollywood still needs them, if only for prestige and marketing. There is going to be some give and take in that with both sides fighting their corners. I think it’ll mean shorter runs at the cinemas for most films, which will, in turn, mean smaller profits at the box office, so I see 2006 being another lean year, though some quality films may help.
I guess we’ll see.
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